Stark new planetary data and the looming U.S. Election

The Climate, Health & Equity Brief is GMMB’s take on the latest news on the current impacts of climate change. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do so by clicking here.

Hot Topic: Tigger warning. With the U.S. election just days away, a wave of troubling new reports shows just how high the stakes are for the planet at this stage.

The 2024 State of the Climate Report shows that 25 of 35 of Earth’s vital signs are now at “extremes,” leaving the planet “on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster,” according to study authors. They conclude under no uncertain terms that immediate action to limit emissions is an absolute necessity to limit human suffering and deaths.

A new report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water underscores the impact of the climate-fueled global water crisis, with demand for freshwater set to outstrip supply by 40% by the end of this decade. Scientists say the shortfall will intensify the water scarcity already felt by half the world’s population and could imperil half of the world’s food production within the next 25 years.

The UN’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report warns that surging greenhouse gas emissions have pushed the world even farther off track to meet Paris Agreement goals, with global temperatures now projected to rise by 2.6°-3.1°C (4.7-5.6°F) by 2100 and a “virtually zero” chance of avoiding at least 1.5°C of warming without imminent emissions cuts.

And another key study warns that even temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C (2.7°F) Paris Agreement warming limit before cooling the planet back down—a scenario in most climate models, given that overshoot is now virtually guaranteed—will have far more severe and long-lasting impacts than previously understood. These effects, scientists now say, will persist for centuries or even millennia, underscoring the urgent need to not only meet but exceed current climate targets to mitigate the worst outcomes.

Given the evidence, it’s not surprising that new research continues to demonstrate the troubling effects of the climate crisis on our mental health. One study found that more than 85% of Americans aged 16-25 are worried about climate change, with 38% saying such worries impact their daily lives and another 38% rethinking having children. Another found that the number of Americans experiencing climate-related psychological distress has increased by 129% in the last two years alone.

In the face of overwhelming evidence, it’s clear to our readers what’s at stake in this election, especially given that Donald Trump has vowed to reverse U.S. climate action and environmental protections should he win. We at the Brief encourage readers to spread the word, join Get Out the Vote efforts, donate, and vote for Kamala Harris and every other candidate on your ballot with the power and ambition to fight for our planet. Given that the U.S. has an outsized impact on global emissions and enormous sway on trends in climate policy, it’s not an overstatement to say that our collective future depends on it.

Human Health

A new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health reveals that 85% of people aged 16-25 are at least moderately worried about climate change, with 58% being “very or extremely worried,” 38% saying the concern affects their daily lives, and 37.9% now hesitant to have children. (Axios)

A new study in NPJ Climate Action found that 16% of Americans are experiencing at least one psychological distress symptom related to climate change, up from 7% of Americans in a 2022 survey, and that while moderate levels of climate anxiety can motivate Americans to take climate action, those with severe psychological distress may struggle to engage. (News Medical)

A new study found that natural events caused by climate change are increasingly releasing contaminants such as lead, mercury, arsenic, and cadmium into oceans, posing threats to humans, marine life, and seafood. (Phys.org)

As Western North Carolina residents dig out of the devastation from Helene, they face rising disease risks from a lack of potable water and the contamination from floodwaters across the region. (Grist)

Planetary Health

The scathing 2024 State of the Climate Report warns that the planet has entered a critical phase of the climate crisis, with 25 out of 35 of Earth’s vital signs now at extremes and authors sounding the alarm that urgent action is needed to avert “profound human suffering.” (The Guardian)

The UN’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report warns that surging greenhouse gas emissions have pushed the world far off track to meet Paris Agreement goals, with global temperatures now set to rise by 2.6°C to 3.1°C (4.68°F to 5.58°F) by 2100, and a “virtually zero” chance of avoiding catastrophic 1.5°C warming unless drastic, immediate emissions cuts are made. (The New York Times)

A new study published in Nature finds that temporarily overshooting Paris climate targets and then cooling the planet back down as policies and technologies improve—an assumption built into most climate models—will mean that devastating climate impacts like rising sea levels and thawing permafrost continue to persist for centuries to millennia. (The Washington Post)

A new report warns that the climate crisis is contributing to a worsening global water disaster, with demand for water set to exceed supply by 40% by the end of the decade, deepening the water scarcity felt by half the global population and imperiling half the world’s food production by 2050. (The Guardian)

A leak at the nation’s first commercial carbon dioxide sequestration site has raised concerns about contamination risks to local reservoirs, potentially jeopardizing national efforts to deploy carbon capture and storage technology. (Grist)

Equity

Nepal, which contributes 0.01% of greenhouse gas emissions but is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, was hit by record flooding in September, killing 246 people, displacing 10,000 households, and causing an estimated $100 million in damage by destroying bridges, schools, farmland, and hydropower plants. (Mongabay)

Politics & Economy

While presidential nominee Kamala Harris would continue President Biden’s climate action if elected, Donald Trump has pledged to gut environmental regulations, expand fossil fuel drilling, withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and even suggested tying disaster relief to political loyalty. (Grist)

In a climate win, the Supreme Court upheld Biden administration regulations that allow the EPA to tighten mercury and toxic pollutant standards from coal-fired power plants and enforce up to 80% cuts in methane emissions from oil and gas facilities. (NBC News)

A new analysis by The Washington Post revealed that FEMA maps vastly underestimated the risks to homeowners in areas devastated by Hurricane Helene, leaving up to seven times more mountain properties at risk than the maps indicated. (The Washington Post)

As climate change accelerates, buildings worldwide face increasingly costly damage from extreme weather, requiring urgent retrofits and skyrocketing maintenance costs and forcing cities to rethink their long-term housing strategies. (Bloomberg News)

A new report predicts that NFL stadiums across the country could experience $11 billion in losses by 2050 due to escalating climate threats, including hurricanes, floods, wildfires, cyclones, snow storms, and increased cooling costs. (NBC News)

Even in the midst of the state’s serious water shortage, Arizona political candidates are failing to prioritize the issue in their campaigns. (Grist)

Google has signed a groundbreaking agreement to power its AI-driven data centers with small nuclear reactors to meet the growing power needs of artificial intelligence, aiming to support its AI-powered data centers with a low-carbon energy solution by 2035. (The Guardian)

Action

Oregon officials added the state’s largest natural gas utility as a defendant in their $50 billion lawsuit against fossil fuel companies for climate-related deception, marking the first time a gas utility has been implicated and setting a new precedent for holding energy companies accountable. (The New York Times)

Life as We Know It

Italy and Switzerland are redrawing their borders due to the rapid melting of the alpine glaciers that separate the countries, which have lost 10% of their volume in the last two years alone. (Bloomberg News)

UC San Diego is implementing a first-of-its-kind requirement that all incoming Bachelor’s candidates complete one of 40 courses to help them understand and address climate change. (NBC News San Diego)

Kicker

With Election Day around the corner, check out these climate-related election resources and insights from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

If we elect Donald Trump…we may read our mistake in the geological record a million years hence. This one really counts.”

– Bill McKibben

The GMMB Climate, Health & Equity Brief would not be possible without the contributions of the larger GMMB team—Aaron Benavides, Stefana Hendronetto, Nikki Melamed, Sharde Olabanji and Marci Welford. Feedback on the Brief is welcome and encouraged and should be sent to CHandEBrief@gmmb.com.